Organic food uptake in unequal urban markets often remains below stated consumer interest, especially among lower-income groups. This matters for sustainable consumption and cleaner production because broader demand is one condition under which more sustainable food systems can move beyond niche markets. This study presents a survey-informed, scenario-based System Dynamics analysis of income-segmented intention-to-adoption path ways for organic food in Lima, Peru. Drawing on an archived survey of 509 valid millennial respondents and segment-specific weights derived through the Analytic Hierarchy Process, the model tests five mechanism-specific scenario families across segments D, C, and A-B over a 30-month horizon: social influence, subsidy-based reductions in economic effort, their joint dynamic activation, knowledge of benefits and environmental awareness, and ethical-value activation. The results are clearly segmented. The largest end-of-horizon improvement appears in segment D when affordability relief and social reinforcement operate jointly (ΔP = 0.123), followed by social influence alone (ΔP = 0.087) and subsidy-based relief (ΔP = 0.051). Knowledge of benefits and environmental awareness in segment C produces a more modest gain (ΔP = 0.012), while ethical-value activation in segment A-B provides bounded directional evidence (ΔP = 0.020). These findings suggest that intention-to-adoption pathways under urban inequality are better understood as dynamic, non-additive, and segment-specific than as the outcome of a single common driver. All results should be read as scenario-based evidence on differentiated modeled pathways, not as direct observation or external validation of real purchasing behavior.
